Texting your Teenagers

For Christmas this year I bought my two step-daughters the new ogo device from AT&T/Cingular. The ogo is an always-on network device that allows a user to send SMS, email, and IM messages using the existing cellular network. But not voice phone calls.

Buying the devices was a solution to the problem of the continual request from the kids for cell phones. This started up a few years ago. I remember the younger of the two girls, at 5 years old saying "I want a REAL cell-o-phone!" When did having a cell phone become more interesting and important than having a car?

The advantage of the ogo is that it offers a single unlimited use flat fee. I was always worried about giving the kids cell phones as they might run up large phone bills over the course of the month. But at roughly $18 a month, they can send as many messages as they like.

One unexpected side effect -- I have talked more with my step-daughter in the last two days over IM than in the previous two weeks in person. Now part of this is the novelty of the new Christmas gift and the fact that she has few other people to IM. But I am beginning to wonder if having this new channel of communication, with its very different medium for exchange, will create a new connection between me and my children. Will they share things or ask things over IM that they wouldn't have asked in person? Will I hear about things happening in their lives, while they are happening, that I never would have heard about after the fact?

Sorry, gotta go. She's at a birthday party and sending me another message. It looks like a smiley face.

T-Mobile Global Network Outage

Strike one against T-Mobile's Internet access over their GPRS network. According to their customer service representative, the network is currently experiencing a "global outage" and there is "no estimated time for services to be restored."

OK, maybe this is strike two for them in the US following the news that Sprint will buy Nextel, leaving T-Mobile in distant last place with just 9% market share. But what about in the rest of the world -- is this true? Is T-Mobile GPRS out of service in your area?

My problems began earlier today when my phone (which sports an always on GPRS connection) started reporting that either my GPRS APN settings were incorrect or my account was not configured for GPRS access.

After awhile this recurring notice became annoying, so I called customer service. After navigating their new voice response service (horrible in itself) I finally managed to reach a live human being. After a few minutes of telling me that she would help me, she read from her script that the T-Mobile Internet was experiencing a global outage, technicians were aware of the problem and working on it, but there was no estimated time for service to be restored...

If mobile carriers are going to offer data services to their customers, these data services will have to become as reliable as voice services. Can you imagine your voice service being out for an entire day? Would you stay with such a carrier? How many customers will T-Mobile lose for their loss of data services today?

Seeking a Sponsor for 2005

(Sponsor: Ted Shelton) -- Here at IP Inferno world headquarters, the editorial staff has been spending time between holiday parties reflecting on what a great year 2004 was and contemplating what 2005 will bring. It was certainly terrific to be listed as one of Jeff Pulver's picks for Top VoIP Bloggers of 2004. But let's face it. The stakes are going up.

The question we have been batting around has been, what will it take to be one of Pulver's Top VoIP Bloggers of 2005?

At the core of this question is another - what will blogging look like a year from now?

If I knew exactly the outcome I might get rich starting exactly the right blogging company. But like everyone else, I am just wandering in the wilderness, trying to find my way through. I have been impressed with the efforts of folks like Tony Perkins with his AlwaysOn Network. And with Jason Calcanis' Weblogs Inc. The answer in both cases is - more bloggers on a specific topic, working together to provide both broader coverage and deeper introspection on those topics.

To do that requires resources. Resources in a publishing model means advertising support...

Back in the old times of radio, commercials sounded quite a bit different from what we hear today. There was a natural evolution from no advertising, to sponsorship, to infomercials, and finally to what we have today (micro-entertainment?). Well, these are the equivalent "old times" for the web and for blogging. So why should blogging be any different?

I am not convinced that the right model is to rush right into an advertising sales force and duplicate the traditional media model. Instead, here at IP Inferno we are going to experiment with sponsored programming. The idea is that with such a specialized focus and readership, there should be some company out there interested in promoting our existence. And while I am intrigued with Marc Cantor's Marqui experiment, I have decided to try something a little bit different.

I am looking for a single sponsor for a three month period (January - March, 2005). The cost is a minimum of $500 per month ($1500) although we are willing to accept more, based on the level of interest expressed. In exchange the sponsor will receive the following:

1. A permanent link on top of the right panel thanking the sponsor for supporting IP Inferno.

2. A "dateline" tag, like the one you see at the top of this entry - that means that the sponsors link will be in every posting and will appear on the RSS feed for the site.

3. In our new editorial model, there will be a weekly post which is not about the news but is a "publisher's letter." The topic will change from week to week (according to the publisher's whim) but will always include a thank you to the sponsor and a sentence or two on what the sponsor's business is or some latest news about the sponsor.

This is an experiment, so we expect to work together with the right sponsor to fine tune this approach. And we expect that it will evolve and look somewhat different by April. We hope that there is an intrepid company willing to try us out, and learn with us about the evolving blogosphere.

And it should generate traffic -- in addition to being ranked by Pulver as one of the top VoIP blogs in 2004, we also are ranked by PubSub as 16,121 amongst all blogs (don't ask me what this means, but it is good). Admittedly we had a huge surge when Pulver's list came out, but we also expect to use some of the sponsor's dollars for promoting ourselves. So our sponsor can expect to reach a sizeable audience.

If you are interested, please contact me directly at tshelton@ipinferno.com

Happy holidays,

Ted

WiMAX vs. 3G?

The competitive threat to entrenched wireless spectrum owners is mounting with a new report out that suggests that WiMAX will take 40% of the broadband wireless market by 2009, according to a report just out from TelecomView and discussed in John Walko's EETimes article today.

But its not quite clear why the analyst firm chose the title "...WiMAX will horn in on 3G Data Market..." for their press release given that the analyst, Bob Larribeau, is quoted in Walko's article as saying:

In fact, the business case for WiMAX, in particular, is close to that for wireline DSL, which makes it an excellent broadband technology alternative.

So which is it? Is WiMAX a competitor to 3G? or DSL? Or do the analysts really know?

VoIP Inferno

Terrific article today by John Tilak in DMEurope with data on the rapid growth of VoIP around the world. According to the report, there are nnow over 1000 VoIP providers offering service to over 5 million subscribers. The article references a report by Point Topic.

Nokia Makes an IPod

Mobile gadgets offers these terrific photos of the new Nokia Neo a phone that looks remarkably like Apple's I Pod... So the big question is, did Nokia

(a) license the design from Apple?
(b) put in place a joint development agreement (i.e. is this going to be an Apple phone?)

or

(c) should we expect the lawsuits to begin soon?

Here is the phone itself (linked from the mobile-gadgets site):

VoIP Security

Michael Myser, writing for eWeek sure is a downer:

Before long, VOIP systems will be filled with spam, open to hackers and taken down by worms. But security, infrastructure and VOIP vendors say it's important to get ahead of the curve, and they encouraged enterprises to consider security first when implementing VOIP systems in a panel Wednesday at Ziff Davis Media's online Virtual Tradeshow on security.

One has to wonder a bit if the vendors that speak at such events are "warning" of these coming exploits in order to sell the products they offer...

Chris Thatcher, prominantly quoted in the article, is the "national practice leader at Dimension Data Holdings. DiData has an IP Telephone division. Another panelist, Andrew Graydon, vice president of technology at BorderWare Technologies Inc. is one step closer to the "problem" -- his company is the self described "Benchmark for Messaging Security."

So were there any independent analysts on this panel? Only attendees will know, as eWeek only had sufficient column inches to pump paying company represenatives? Cynical? Nah, I've been there myself... that's the way the game is played. Caveat Emptor.

Moto drops behind Samsung

Predicted for awhile now, Samsung has finally moved into the number 2 position in worldwide mobile sales. Nokia edged up a bit to just over 30% (still a healthy lead). Perhaps even more interesting is that LG edged out SonyEricsson for the #5 position.

Derek Kerton writing for TechDirt states that Motorola is expected to bounce back to #2 in the next quarter through discounting and new product introductions. But even if they can put some numbers on the board for a single quarter, this does not describe a strategy for keeping the #2 position (or competing against Nokia). Instead, Samsung is likely to continue to expand their lead. Why? First because they are in a much better position to take advantage of the growing market in Asia (the fastest growing market for cell phones in the world). And second because they have adopted a strategy of building phones for every platform -- Microsoft, Nokia's Series 60, and their own proprietary OS.

Regarding the LG vs. SonyEricsson match up, Reuters quoted Gartner analyst Ben Wood as saying that both companies did well, despite LG's edging SE out of 5th place: "Both are growing. The Sony Ericsson brand is growing in stature, and LG was able to take over fifth place as a result of big deals with CDMA operators in North America."

Tony Smith, writing for The Register offers a broader round-up of analyst data, pointing out that not all of the data shows Samsung pulling ahead of Motorola. In-Stat/MDR shows Motorola still in the #2 slot.

In-Stat put Motorola's and Samsung's market shares at 14.1 per cent and 13.8 per cent, respectively. SA's had the two on 13.9 per cent and 13.5 per cent, so it's clearly a close-run thing whichever way you look at it. Gartner put their shares at 13.4 per cent (Motorola) and 13.8 per cent (Samsung).

This has been a long slide for Motorola, whichever way you look at it. Dave Carpenter, writing for the Associated Press in a piece that appeared in eWeek points out that five years ago Motorola was number 1 in worldwide cell phone sales.

Tough News for WiMax... Err, for the U.S.A.

It seeemed like some rough sledding for WiMax in the news this morning. But on second look, the subtext of the news was more about how the U.S. is falling behind again in the wireless bandwidth world. News.com's Ben Chamy reports that Nextel has dropped WiMax from their plans. Ben writes:

The reason? Among others, WiMax isn't yet ready for the rigors of delivering broadband to people on the move. Also, Nextel spokesman Aaron Radelet said Tuesday, the carrier doesn't have access to the appropriate spectrum for WiMax. That's why the nation's fifth-largest cell phone service provider favors either the same cell phone equipment Verizon Communications now uses to sell broadband in 20 major markets, or even faster but lesser-known wireless equipment using Flarion Technologies' FLASH-OFDM technology, a spokesman for the carrier said.

The Inquirer's Wil Harris writes that Intel's WiMAX plans face huge threat. He writes that competition from the 802.20 standard "...could shatter the dreams of those backing WiMAX..." according to a paper just out in the Journal of Communications Network. The main reason? 802.20 uses the more common spectrum - licensed bands up to 3.5 GHz... Sense a trend?

Adding fuel to the fire, Businessweek's Alex Salkever offers a news analyis this week entitled WiMax: Between Hype and Hot Stuff. In the article Salkever reports that Broadcom has declined to include WiMax compatibility in its next line of chips for communications in PCs. He also addresses the issue of bandwidth:

One other potential drawback: The Federal Communications Commission has chosen to allocate radio spectrum in the 3.5- and 10-gigahertz bands to private WiMax providers. The rest of the developed world has WiMax allocation in different spectrum locations. That means gearmakers will have to customize WiMax equipment for the U.S., possibly driving up costs.

While these reporters each project some doom and gloom for WiMax due to the spectrum allocation issues, a more important issue lurks below the surface -- namely, is the FCC yet again dooming the US to being a backward country when it comes to high speed network access? Why can't we get in line with the rest of the world when it comes to bandwidth allocation? Frankly, the developing world needs WiMax more than we do and so the technology will continue to develop and will be deployed... outside the U.S. If only we could sort out the spectrum here, we could participate in the rewards of cheap high speed wireless data access. Otherwise we will find ourselves the last market served with inferior, more expensive equipment.

WiFi Patent Fight

Previously on this blog we have talked about the patent challenges to wireless technologies posed by Canadian company, Wi-Lan. Now, according to this article on News.com a new challenger to WiFi has emerged, Acacia Research. In that previous post, IP Inferno defended the practice of a small company (Wi-Lan) protecting their intellectual property through patent enforcement. This case seems a bit different.

Acacia Research is described by News.com as a "patent warehouse." The patent in question was originally developed by a company called LodgNet Entertainment and was purchased by Acacia this past July. The strategy seems to have worked well for Acacia. According to the company's own press release they have signed 200 licensees for a streaming media patent which they have also been enforcing.

The idea of a special entity designed for the purpose of enforcing patents has some interesting pros and cons. On the "pro" side, it can be very difficult for an operating business to enforce their own patents. First of all it is expensive and time consuming, distracting the business from its core activities. Secondly, given the large patent portfolios of bigger companies, a small company seeking to enforce its patent rights must always worry about the bigger company coming after them with their own patent portfolio (legitimatly or not). Finally, customers often see a patent fight as a negative -- is the vendor focused on the right issues? Building a great product? Supporting customers? Or enriching lawyers? So it can be bad PR to protect your patents as a small company. Also on the "pro" side, an independent licensing entity does not have a conflict of interest in granting patent licenses in that they do not compete with the licensees. Thus there is a hope for "commercially reasonable" license terms.

On the "con" side, a special purpose entity enforcing patents has no reason to compromise with licensees, so litigation can go on indefinitely. Part of the strategy of a patent licensee is to exhaust the potential licensees willingness and ability to fight in court. This dynamic can allow bad patents to exact a tax on businesses unreasonably. Think of it as "protection money." Also on the "con" side, a licensing entity is not protecting their own specific business use of a patent, they are seeking as broad a definition of the patent as possible in order to rope in as many licensees as possible. Thus this trend of "patent warehousing" may lead to much broader patent claims being made. While this may make patents harder to enforce in the long run, as a tool for exacting "protection money" it could prove quite lucrative.

What do you think? Does patent enforcement, particularly through this special purpose entities hinder business innovation? Or encourage core research?