Skype Worth MORE

Why didn't Skype sell for $3 billion when given the chance? Perhaps they looked at the recent investment in Vonage and, based on that valuation, thought that $3 Billion was a paltry sum.

According to industry watchers, the Vonage investment was made at a valuation of $1 billion... and Vonage has less than 1 million subscribers. Skype on the other hand has over 2 million people logged on at any one moment of the day and an estimated 20 million active users. Add to that the fact that Skype has become an internationally recognized brand name and perhaps a valuation of $30 billion is not unreasonable.

It will be difficult, however, for anyone (even Microsoft) to acquire a startup with hardly any revenue for $30 billion. Cringely writes:

Expect Skype to be sold, another viral marketing success sucked up by big business. Expect it to go to either a major broadband provider or, more likely, to a big mobile carrier with no fixed telephone assets.

Unless the founders just get greedy and want out fast, I think he's wrong and that Skype is much more likely to go public.

Hooray Internet Bubble 2.0...